Goldman Sachs: Brent oil could rise to $140 a barrel

According to foreign media reports, Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil prices despite the first two-week decline in oil prices since April this year. Goldman Sachs chief commodities strategist Jeff Currie said Brent crude futures in London could rise as high as $140 a barrel this summer. He believes that the current lack of investment in the oil and gas sector will continue to drive oil prices higher.

On June 7 this year, Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that the price of Brent crude oil will hit $140 per barrel. But since then, international oil prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks. On June 27, Currie reiterated this expectation, and believed that the recent fall in oil prices was a buying opportunity.

Currie mentioned in the report that the structural shortage of crude oil has not yet been resolved, and further increases in oil prices can normalize inventories. Currie summed up the following four factors supporting the rise in oil prices: the temporary inventory surplus has ended due to the continued recovery of Asian demand and Russian production cuts; the global crude oil demand is still elastic under the current high oil price; Supply is difficult to increase; furthermore, structural shortages remain unresolved.

According to Bloomberg News, the G7 summit in the West ended on the 28th, and new sanctions were imposed on Russia. The meeting communique will seek to establish a mechanism to set price caps on Russian gas and oil exports, the people said. The British “Financial Times” reported that the “price limit” requires a “highly complex” mechanism and a lot of technical work to become a reality, according to some informed officials. The main way, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is to impose restrictions on shipping and insurance services for Russian crude.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in the United States, said that the G7’s attempt to limit the price of Russian oil exports is very absurd, and any attempt to impose price restrictions will eventually lead to supply shortages. Flynn also said that any further G7 measures to restrict the development of the oil and gas industry would be positive for expected prices.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for “diversification of supplies”, including the return of sanctioned Iran and Venezuela to international oil markets, a French presidential spokesman said on the sidelines of the G7 summit. France has urged oil producers to boost output in “extraordinary ways”.

Some analysts pointed out that if the United States lifted sanctions on Iran, the average daily supply of the latter could increase by 1.2 million barrels. As of mid-February this year, Iran’s oil storage on tankers had reached 100 million barrels, meaning that it could increase supply by 1 million barrels per day in more than three months, equivalent to 1% of global production, according to French Kepler data. .

A senior official from the Dutch Vitol Group, a global oil trading giant, said on the 5th that the U.S. government may acquiesce to Iran’s export of more oil to the global market while still subject to unilateral U.S. sanctions, in order to stabilize oil prices and alleviate high domestic gasoline prices in the United States economic and political pressures.